French Property Prices – 2009 & 2010 Forecast


Current Situation (February 2009)

Although residence and property charges have visible dramatic declines lately in a few countries (e.G. USA and the UK), costs were extreme in France. In truth, in January of 2009, there was a moderate boom (zero.6%) compared to the previous month. Furthermore, 2008 saw charges decline with the aid of only 2.5%, which did now not even offset the 2007 boom of three—8% (figures from FNAIM, France’s national affiliation of property marketers).

Unlike international locations (e.G. USA, UK, Spain), France isn’t experiencing significant belongings fee discounts. Instead, it has seen a reduction within the price of house inflation during the last four years, with the previous year a slight price reduction. The many predictions of a massive fall of French property charges in 2008 have been confirmed incorrect. Different forecasts for a gigantic fall in 2009 will likely prove equally wrong (see the remainder of the article for discussion).

French Property Price Stability

Historically, France has had enormously stable charges. In any given 12 months, belongings can also grow or decrease with the aid of a small quantity; however, historically, prices have been extended in keeping with inflation over the medium and long time. From 1999 to 2006, there has been an exchange from this traditional pattern. Still, marketplace fundamentals are reasserting themselves, and the French belongings market has again to its everyday conduct considering that 2006.



Expectations that this could be accompanied by the aid of a length of significant belongings deflation are primarily based on the reviews in other countries (consisting of the UK, USA, and Spain). However, such predictions do not consider the critical variations among these markets and the French marketplace. To begin with, charge inflation in France has been an awful lot lower than in those other nations, so the costs of the French asset have not reached the immoderate ranges to be observed some other place and therefore are underneath a great deal less stress to drop.

Limited Property Speculation

In France, belongings funding is typically a great deal more conservative than in different nations. Property has a tendency to be purchased as a protracted-time period funding for several motives:

Historically, France has had a robust property marketplace, in preference to the growth-bust tendencies found somewhere else. Consequently, there isn’t always a perception that belongings can make quick or smooth cash. Instead, it’s far purchased for personal use, often later in life while one is settled and intends to stay in the equal vicinity for a substantial time frame.

Alternatively, it’s miles purchased as a long-time period funding. The charges of buying and selling belongings are pretty high in France, with property agent charges generally double or triple that determined in the UK. At the same time, Notaire fees and taxes can consume 10% of the price of assets. Consequently, the payment for a property needs to rise by up to fifteen% to cover those costs, so one ought to hold onto a property for a longer time frame if one wants to earn.

French banks have substantially greater conservative lending practices than some other places. A sizable deposit is typically required (rather than the 100% mortgages found within the UK), as is coverage to guarantee reimbursement. Furthermore, in France, large-scale lending to high danger debtors (as located inside the USA sub-high loan marketplace) isn’t always found.

This view of belongings as a protracted-term investment, each through assets owners and using banks, adds a considerable balance to assets expenses. In the modern-day financial disaster, the reality that France does now not have a massive range of high-hazard debtors is equally essential. As the economic scenario has declined, many borrowers have defaulted on their mortgages, and therefore an enormous variety of houses are pressured income.

These pressured incomes have reduced property prices, resulting in addition loan defaults and further pressured sales. Thus, inside the USA, one sees a massive increase in the supply of property, at the same time as demand for property is dropping because of monetary issues. The enormous drop in USA, UK, and Spain assets expenses is due to this imbalance of supply and call for.

Although France, like several nations, has speculative assets purchases and loan defaults, the ranges are far lower than in different countries due to the reasons discussed above. Consequently, it has not seen a significant increase in property delivery and therefore isn’t experiencing the assets price problems determined somewhere else.

Property Demand

Although the French assets market has been essentially free of the problems found some other place in phrases of belongings speculation, loan defaults, and forced sales, it’s far laid low with a significant lower in the call for. Within France, this lower is partly because of financial troubles and partly due to humans keeping off purchases because of lack of self-assurance approximately the destiny economic situations.

There is also an utterly considerable drop in purchases of a property via foreigners. Partly that is due to the global economic crisis, with related financial problems and worries. However, adjustments in foreign money quotes also play a giant function; for instance, the drop in the UK pound from its ancient average of one. Five euros/pound to the modern 1.1 euros/pound approach that French assets are now a way more pricey for UK shoppers.

Furthermore, further to making belongings extra high-priced, folks dependent on a UK income discover that the currency charge changes make the price of living in France an awful lot better than 12 months in the past. Finally, for those who might promote their UK belongings to fund the acquisition of a French property, the drop in UK belongings costs mean that they could have much less cash. Similar difficulties are faced by using potential buyers from the USA and some of the different international locations.

Although the decline in overseas purchases has a limited effect on the overall marketplace, it disproportionately impacts specific residences where the overseas client makes up a sizeable segment. These encompass man or woman residences (e.G. Farmhouses in need of healing, chateaux) and high-end houses in areas in particular favored via overseas shoppers (e.G. Provence). Consequently, the considerable reduction in foreign customers has contributed to those sorts of properties falling greater than the marketplace average (in some instances, drops of 20% to 30%, as opposed to the market, expected decline of 2.Five%).

Outlook for 2009, 2010

The typical French property market must remain exceedingly stable. Overall, there might be slight declines over the subsequent years, even though there may be months wherein prices increase (along with January 2009). However, in belongings segments where foreign consumers have a massive impact, costs will remain very depressed until the international economic state of affairs improves.